By: Rabboni Ayoola Abayomi Oriowo
Nigeria has always been impatient with surgery and in love with painkillers.
For 40 years we complained about fuel subsidy. Every government promised to remove it but postponed it. Every economist said the multiple exchange rate was a corruption ATM. Every President promised to fix it but left it. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, on Day One, did what ought to be done.
Now we are in pains. But this is not the pain of injury. It is the pain of surgery.
And there is no surgeon you sack midway into a life-saving operation because the patient is bleeding. You allow him to finish.
THE HARD TRUTHS: WHAT HE MET AND WHAT HE DID
A nation spending over 90% of its revenue servicing debt, Naira printed via Ways and Means to the tune of N22.7 trillion, fuel subsidy consuming more than our capital budget, a forex system where the CBN sold dollars at N450 and politicians sold at N750.
Any doctor who tells you that such a patient can be healed without pain is lying.
- The Subsidy Removal That Others Feared:-
N4 trillion yearly savings now going to Federation Account. States now receive 2-3 times what they used to get. For the first time since 2019, poverty rate has stabilized according to World Bank October 2026 Report.
- The Forex Unification:- Painful, yes. But today we have one transparent market, reserves have risen from $32bn to $53.8bn, foreign airlines trapped funds have been cleared, and investor confidence is back. GDP grew 4.2% in H1 2026.
- Revenue Revolution:- Federal revenue is up 69% in real terms. Debt service to revenue ratio which was 97% in 2023 is now below 60%.
- Infrastructure Financing:- Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, Sokoto-Badagry Highway, Student Loan, CNG Initiative. 20-year foundations.
- Minimum Wage and Social Investment: N30,000 to N70,000, Student Loan, cash transfer to 15 million households.
Yes, these have not yet reached the pot of soup of the common man. Inflation down from 34.8% to 15.15% still hurts because price level remains high. That is the nature of surgery. The patient is worse immediately after surgery than before, but better than if surgery was never done.
THE BIG COMPLAINT: THE BORROWING OF THIS GOVERNMENT – AND WHY WE MUST UNDERSTAND IT
This is the loudest and most legitimate complaint against this government, and we must not sweep it under carpet.
The Complaint:
Nigerians are angry and rightly ask: If subsidy is gone and revenue is up, why are we still borrowing so much?
The numbers are staggering: Total public debt was N87.38 trillion in June 2023 when President Tinubu took over. By December 2025 it was N159.28 trillion. By mid-2026 it is N166.79 trillion. Domestic borrowing in first eight months of 2026 alone was N24.7 trillion – 90% more than same period in 2025. Debt-to-GDP has risen from about 40% to over 52%.
People say: “You removed subsidy to stop borrowing, but you are borrowing more.” It is a fair question.
THE HONEST EXPLANATION – WHY BORROWING BECAME INEVITABLE:-
a) We Inherited a Dead Revenue System:
In 2023, government was spending 97 kobo of every N1 earned to pay debt. What do you do when you meet a house where salary cannot pay interest?
You must borrow to restructure and to build capacity to earn more. The President said it himself: “Borrowing is not leprosy; we just have to work hard to be able to pay back.”
b) The Naira Devaluation Effect:-
More than 40% of our debt increase is not new borrowing, but revaluation. External debt of $43bn in 2023 at N460/$ was about N19 trillion. That same $43bn at N1,500/$ today is N64 trillion. We did not borrow N45 trillion extra – the Naira moved. This is what many analysts hide.
c) Securitization of Old Sins:-
N22.7 trillion of Ways and Means – money illegally printed by previous CBN – was converted to formal debt. It was already debt, but now it is counted openly. It is painful transparency, not new recklessness.
d) Borrowing to Service Old Debt:-
In 2025 budget, debt service was N14.32 trillion while deficit was N13.08 trillion. Meaning: We are not borrowing to chop, we are borrowing to repay what Buhari, Jonathan, Obasanjo borrowed before. This is like using one credit card to pay another while you fix your business.
THE ADVANTAGES AND JUSTIFICATION.
When Borrowing is Not a Sin:-
There are two types of borrowing – and our elders distinguish them well.
“Borrowing to eat is slavery. Borrowing to farm is investment.”
Good borrowing is what the world calls DEVELOPMENTAL DEBT:
- America owes $35 trillion. China owes $14 trillion. Japan owes 260% of its GDP. They are not poor. They borrowed to build assets that generate revenue to repay.
- If you borrow N1 trillion to build Lagos-Calabar Highway that will generate N3 trillion in 20 years through trade, tourism, and tolls, you have not impoverished children, you have employed them.
- If you borrow to build power, rail, CNG infrastructure, student loans – you are converting debt to human capital and physical capital.
What this government is trying to do, and this is what the World Bank affirmed, is to move from borrowing for consumption (subsidy, salaries) to borrowing for infrastructure that will pay itself.
THE OVERALL EFFECTS ON THE ECONOMY:-
Positive:
It prevented total collapse. Without borrowing in 2023/2024, government could not pay salaries after subsidy removal shock. It kept states alive. It funded forex unification which required reserves. It stabilized the system.
Negative:
It raises debt service burden for future, puts pressure on Naira if not tied to productive assets, and if capital releases remain low – less than 25% in 2024 – then we are paying interest on money not yet used. That is our real danger, not borrowing itself.
WHAT NIGERIANS SHOULD DEMAND, NOT JUST COMPLAIN:-
Instead of saying “Don’t borrow,” we should say: “Show us what you borrowed to build, and release the money.”
The solution is not zero borrowing. No nation develops with zero borrowing. Even Dangote borrowed to build refinery.
The solution is:
- Tie every loan to a specific, revenue-generating project and publish it.
- Ensure capital budget release is 80% minimum, not 25%.
- Cap debt service to revenue at 50% and keep reducing it.
- Use increased FAAC to states for real projects, not SUVs.
Borrowing is like fire – good servant, bad master. The President has chosen to use fire to cook development, not to burn the house. But we must watch the kitchen.
WHY A SECOND TERM IS NECESSARY
- You Don’t Change a Driver in the Middle of a Desert.
Tinubu has taken the unpopular decisions. The next President will enjoy benefits – higher revenue, no subsidy, stable FX – without paying cost.
- To Deny Him Second Term is to Live in Perpetual Speculation.
For 20 years we will argue: “What if we had allowed him to finish?” Let him finish. If after 8 years benefits are not felt, we have evidence, not speculation.
- Starting Anew is Starting Afresh With New Trials and Errors. Every new government comes with its own reversal. We will spend another 2 years debating policy direction. As our people say: “You don’t pack out of a house because you are still plastering the walls. You wait to see the paint.”
- Governance is Like Farming.
You cannot plant maize in May and demand harvest in June. China’s reforms took 10 years. Economy is not instant noodles. It is pounded yam – you pound, you sweat, before you eat.
- Patience is Not Support for Suffering, It is Support for Solution. “Bi ina ba n jo, owo meji ni a n fi pa a” – When fire is burning, you use two hands to quench it.
THE PAIN THAT CANNOT BE AVOIDED
Every life-saving surgery has pain, blood, and scars.
- When you remove cancer, you must cut flesh.
- When you set a broken bone, you must cause pain.
- When a mother gives birth, pain precedes joy.
Nigeria’s economy was cancerous with subsidy and forex fraud. Tinubu has cut it.
In conclusion, President Tinubu is not perfect. But he is doing what ought to have been done 20 years ago.
He does not deserve a second term because he is perfect. He deserves a second term because his reforms – including his borrowing strategy which must now be disciplined and made more transparent and productive – deserve to be completed, tested, and judged fairly.
Let us not be a nation that always starts and never finishes.
Let him finish the surgery. For after pain, if the surgeon is allowed to finish, comes healing.
As they say: “The night is darkest just before dawn.” Dawn is coming.
God bless Nigeria. Amen!!!
Rabboni Ayoola Abayomi Oriowo
